~~Below are links to data about weather, climate and global warming for anyone wanting to plot or analyse the data themselves. They includes sources of land and sea surface temperature data and satellite (troposphere) data. There are also links to reports on the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) around the equator, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see Oceans and Sea Surface), as well as sea ice pages to see what's happening near the poles. And then there is sea level, and CO2 data. Sometimes those CO2 links work, and sometimes they don't. I've plotted some of the data and try to keep the charts up to date. You can view or download a number of charts from here.
RealClimate.org lists more data sources. Nick Stokes at Moyhu does a lot of data analysis.
This is a collection of papers about climate science. It includes some, though not all, of the seminal papers that mark important milestones in either the science or the public's understanding of the science, including some early papers. And in case you think that the public only learnt about greenhouse gases recently, I've started to put together a collection of old newspaper articles on the blog. These show that as long ago as 1884 at least, even people who lived in rural South Australia knew about greenhouse gases (those who read the paper, anyway).
Attribution of the present‐day total greenhouse effect, Schmidt et al 2010
Gavin Schmidt - Taking the measure of the greenhouse effect - a good article on attribution on the NASA website
Robert A. Berner (2005) GEOCARBSULF: A combined model for Phanerozoic atmospheric O2 and CO2
Robert A. Berner and Zavareth Kothavala (2001) GEOCARB III: A Revised Model of Atmosperic CO2 over Phanerozoic Time
Representative Concentration Pathways: An Overview (2011) van Vuuren et al
NOAA paleoclimate temperature reconstructions - list of papers and a chart
NASA Vostok ice core records with animated temperature chart
Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
Mulvaney et al (2012), Nature Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice-shelf history
Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?by Wallace S. Broecker, published in Science in 1975
Restoring the Quality of Our Environment - Report of the Environmental Pollution Panel President's Science Advisory Committee (to Lyndon B Johnson, 1965) ; Appendix by Roger Revelle et al
The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climatic Change by Gilbert N. Plass (1956); Tellus Vlll
Hansen testimony to Congressional Committee 1988
Hansen et al 1988 - Global Climate Changes as Forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies Three-Dimensional Model
IPCC 2007 - compendium of science etc
Four degrees and beyond - Royal Society edition March 2011
Copenhagen Diagnosis - update for Copenhagen
State of the Climate - CSIRO / BoM Australia March 2010
State of the Climate 2010 - CSIRO / BoM Australia 2010 updated
The Antarctic Climate (Pew Centre fact sheet)
Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment (SCAR 2009)
Antarctica's Future (SCAR Feb 2010 slides - pdf)
Earth’s Annual Global Mean Energy Budget (Kiehl and Trenberth, 1997)
The Definition of El Nino (Trenberth, 1997)
Attribution of the present‐day total greenhouse effect (Schmidt et al, 2010)
Marine Climate Change in Australia - simple overview - CSIRO
Global Surface Temperature Change - Hansen, Ruedy, Sato, Lo 2010 (description of GISS temperature data records, how they are collected, adjustments etc) - or here
Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years, Kinnard et al (Dec 2011), Nature
Trenberth, Kevin E., John T. Fasullo, Jeffrey Kiehl, 2009: Earth's Global Energy Budget. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 311–323.
Kiehl, J. T. and Trenberth, K. E., 1997: Earth's Annual Global Mean Energy Budget. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 197-208.
Broecker et al (2010) Putting the Younger Dryas Cold Event into Context
Richard B Alley (2000) The Younger Dryas cold interval as viewed from central Greenland
Murton et al (2010) Identification of Younger Dryas outburst flood path from Lake Agassiz to the Arctic Ocean
Teller (2012) Importance of freshwater injections into the Arctic Ocean in triggering the Younger Dryas cooling
Meteorologica by Aristotle, circa 350 BC
Remarques générales sur les températures du globe terrestre et des espaces planétaires by Jean Baptiste Joseph Fourier 1824 - translated by Ebeneser Burgess.
Mémoire sur les Températures du Globe Terrestre et des Espaces Planétaires. by Jean Baptiste Joseph Fourier 1827 - translated by R. T. Pierrehumbert with footnotes by the translator
The Bakerian Lecture.-On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and on the Physical Connexion of Radiation, Absorption, and Conduction. By John Tyndall 1861
Svante Arrhenius on atmospheric CO2 and water vapour (1896)
Guy Stewart Callendar (1938) - The Artificial Production of Carbon Dioxide and its Influence on Temperature
Wood's note on how greenhouses stay hot (1909)
Ingenhousz and photosynthesis (1799)
First newspaper mention of 'global warming' and 'climate changes' - 1957 ?
IEA 2011 CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (Highlights - statistics)
Multi-party committee - Clean Energy Agreement - Australia - Carbon Pricing Scheme
Prof Ross Garnaut report on emissions control strategies (Australia)
Securing our Water Future (Prof Bill Russell review for Victorian Government, Australia)
Lord Stern review on economics of climate change (UK)
How to avoid being swiftboated (Juan Cole)
Classical papers from the history of chemistry
Extinction of Marine Invertebrates - Jeremy B C Jackson
Gallant, Ailie J. E., David J. Karoly, 2010: A Combined Climate Extremes Index for the Australian Region. J. Climate, 23, 6153–6165
The Age article on the above
Karoly article on 2009 fires in Realclimate.org
RealClimate - Butterflies, tornadoes and climate modelling
Stoat illustrating chaos and climate models
Skeptical Science - Chaos theory and global warming: can climate be predicted?
Edward Lorenz (1972) - The Butterfly Effect
RealClimate - Chaos and Climate
Wikipedia - Chaos Theory
This is a collection of papers, blog articles and science discussions about specific topics in climate science. I put it together to list some of the papers I looked at when writing the article about albedo, then added some about solar (in the light of various people suggesting the sun will become less active in the near term.) I'll add to it over time. If you want a topic or favourite paper listed here, send me an email.
Albedo | Solar | Antarctica
Below are some papers relating to albedo - recent as well as older papers...
Crook, J. A., and P. M. Forster. "Comparison of surface albedo feedback in climate models and observations." Geophysical Research Letters 41, no. 5 (2014): 1717-1723. DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059280 (open access)
Donohoe, Aaron, and David S. Battisti. "Atmospheric and surface contributions to planetary albedo." Journal of Climate 24, no. 16 (2011): 4402-4418. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3946.1 (open access)
Feulner, Georg, Stefan Rahmstorf, Anders Levermann, and Silvia Volkwardt. "On the origin of the surface air temperature difference between the hemispheres in earth's present-day climate." Journal of Climate 26, no. 18 (2013): 7136-7150. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00636.1 (pdf here)
Hall, Alex. "The role of surface albedo feedback in climate." Journal of Climate 17, no. 7 (2004): 1550-1568. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1550:TROSAF>2.0.CO;2 (open access)
He, Tao, Shunlin Liang, and Dan‐Xia Song. "Analysis of global land surface albedo climatology and spatial‐temporal variation during 1981–2010 from multiple satellite products." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 119, no. 17 (2014): 10-281. DOI: 10.1002/2014JD021667 (pdf here) - Note: This paper gives a description of the various satellites used to calculate measures of albedo.
Kato, Seiji. "Interannual variability of the global radiation budget." Journal of Climate 22, no. 18 (2009): 4893-4907. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2795.1 (open access)
Kukla, G., and D. Robinson. "Annual cycle of surface albedo." Monthly Weather Review 108, no. 1 (1980): 56-68. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108<0056:ACOSA>2.0.CO;2 (open access)
Liu, Zhengjia, Quanqin Shao, Jian Tao, and Wenfeng Chi. "Intra-annual variability of satellite observed surface albedo associated with typical land cover types in China." Journal of Geographical Sciences 25, no. 1 (2015): 35-44. DOI 10.1007/s11442-015-1151-5 (pdf here)
Loeb, Norman G., Bruce A. Wielicki, Fred G. Rose, and David R. Doelling. "Variability in global top‐of‐atmosphere shortwave radiation between 2000 and 2005." Geophysical Research Letters 34, no. 3 (2007). DOI: 10.1029/2006GL028196 (pdf here)
Pallé, E., P. R. Goode, V. Yurchyshyn, J. Qiu, J. Hickey, P. Montañés Rodriguez, M‐C. Chu, E. Kolbe, C. T. Brown, and S. E. Koonin. "Earthshine and the Earth's albedo: 2. Observations and simulations over 3 years." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012) 108, no. D22 (2003). doi:10.1029/2003JD003611, 2003 (open access)
Pistone, Kristina, Ian Eisenman, and V. Ramanathan. "Observational determination of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111, no. 9 (2014): 3322-3326. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1318201111 (open access)
Qu, Xin, and Alex Hall. "Surface contribution to planetary albedo variability in cryosphere regions." Journal of Climate 18, no. 24 (2005): 5239-5252. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3555.1 (open access)
Robock, Alan. "The seasonal cycle of snow cover, sea ice and surface albedo." Monthly Weather Review 108, no. 3 (1980): 267-285. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108<0267:TSCOSC>2.0.CO;2 (open access)
Rutan, David, T. Charlock, Fred Rose, Seiji Kato, Scott Zentz, and Lisa Coleman. "Global surface albedo from CERES/TERRA surface and atmospheric radiation budget (SARB) data product." In Proceedings of 12th conference on atmospheric radiation (AMS), pp. 10-14. 2006. (pdf here)
Stephens, Graeme L., Denis O'Brien, Peter J. Webster, Peter Pilewski, Seiji Kato, and Jui‐lin Li. "The albedo of Earth." Reviews of Geophysics 53, no. 1 (2015): 141-163. DOI: 10.1002/2014RG000449 (pdf here)
Stephens, Graeme L., Juilin Li, Martin Wild, Carol Anne Clayson, Norman Loeb, Seiji Kato, Tristan L'Ecuyer, Paul W. Stackhouse Jr, Matthew Lebsock, and Timothy Andrews. "An update on Earth's energy balance in light of the latest global observations." Nature Geoscience 5, no. 10 (2012): 691-696. doi:10.1038/ngeo1580 (pdf here)
Stephens, G. L., G. G. Campbell, and T. H. Haar. "Earth radiation budgets." Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (1978–2012) 86, no. C10 (1981): 9739-9760. (open access)
Sun, Wenbo, Norman G. Loeb, Roger Davies, Konstantin Loukachine, and Walter F. Miller. "Comparison of MISR and CERES top‐of‐atmosphere albedo." Geophysical research letters 33, no. 23 (2006). DOI: 10.1029/2006GL027958 (open access)
Thackeray, C. W., C. G. Fletcher, and C. Derksen (2015), Quantifying the skill of CMIP5 models in simulating seasonal albedo and snow cover evolution, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, doi:10.1002/2015JD023325
Turner, J., W. M. Connolley, T. A. Lachlan‐Cope, and G. J. Marshall. "The performance of the Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadCM3) in high southern latitudes." International journal of climatology 26, no. 1 (2006): 91-112. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1260 (open access)
Reflections from surface and clouds - is there an albedo expert in the house? - HotWhopper July 2015
There are some scientists who think that the sun is heading for a solar minimum. These are some relevant recent papers, articles and scientific discussions on the subject and what it might mean at the regional and global level, and in the context of greenhouse warming. Notice that some of these papers are very recent (2015), with thanks to TB for some of the references. Mike Lockwood's 2009 paper is an excellent overview of solar science itself as well as how it relates to climate.
Anet, J. G., E. V. Rozanov, S. Muthers, T. Peter, S. Brönnimann, F. Arfeuille, J. Beer et al. "Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone." Geophysical Research Letters 40, no. 16 (2013): 4420-4425. doi:10.1002/grl.50806, 2013 (pdf here)
Feulner, Georg, and Stefan Rahmstorf. "On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth." Geophysical Research Letters37, no. 5 (2010). DOI: 10.1029/2010GL042710 (open access)
What if the Sun went into a new Grand Minimum? RealClimate article from 2011 about Fuelner and Rahmstorf 2010
Lockwood, Mike. "Solar change and climate: an update in the light of the current exceptional solar minimum." In Proceedings of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, p. rspa20090519. The Royal Society, 2009. DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2009.0519 (open access)
Lockwood, Mike. "Was UV spectral solar irradiance lower during the recent low sunspot minimum?." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012) 116, no. D16 (2011). DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014746 (pdf here)
Ineson, Sarah, Amanda C. Maycock, Lesley J. Gray, Adam A. Scaife, Nick J. Dunstone, Jerald W. Harder, Jeff R. Knight, Mike Lockwood, James C. Manners, and Richard A. Wood. "Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum." Nature communications 6 (2015). doi:10.1038/ncomms8535 (open access)
Maycock, A. C., S. Ineson, L. J. Gray, A. A. Scaife, J. A. Anstey, M. Lockwood, N. Butchart, S. C. Hardiman, D. M. Mitchell, and S. M. Osprey. "Possible impacts of a future Grand Solar Minimum on climate: Stratospheric and global circulation changes." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (2015). DOI: 10.1002/2014JD022022 (open access)
Meehl, Gerald A., Julie M. Arblaster, and Daniel R. Marsh. "Could a future “Grand Solar Minimum” like the Maunder Minimum stop global warming?." Geophysical Research Letters 40, no. 9 (2013): 1789-1793. doi:10.1002/grl.50361, 2013 (open access)
What will happen during a new Maunder Minimum? Climate dialogue discussion October 2014, with Mike Lockwood (UK), Nicola Scafetta (US), Jan-Erik Solheim (NO), José Vaquero (ES) and Ilya Usoskin (FI).
References from: Harig, Christopher, and Frederik J. Simons. "Accelerated West Antarctic ice mass loss continues to outpace East Antarctic gains." Earth and Planetary Science Letters 415 (2015): 134-141. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2015.01.029
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Baur, O., Sneeuw, N., 2011. Assessing Greenland ice mass loss by means of point-mass modeling: a viable methodology. J. Geod.85 (9), 607–615. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00190-011-0463-1.
Berthier, E., Scambos, T.A., Shuman, C.A., 2012. Mass loss of Larsen B tributary glaciers (Antarctic Peninsula) unabated since 2002. Geophys. Res. Lett.39 (13), L13501. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051755.
Bettadpur, S., the CSR Level-2 Team, 2012. Insights into the Earth system mass variability from CSR-RL05 GRACE gravity fields. Geophys. Res. Abstr.14, 6409. http://www.csr.utexas.edu/grace/RL05_details.html.
Bintanja, R., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Drijfhout, S.S., Wouters, B., Katsman, C.A., 2013. Important role for ocean warming and increased ice-shelf melt in Antarctic sea-ice expansion. Nat. Geosci.6 (5), 376–379. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/NGEO1767.
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Cheng, M., Tapley, B.D., Ries, J.C., 2013. Deceleration in the Earth’s oblateness. J.Geo-phys. Res.118, 740–747. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jgrb.50058.
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Harig, C., Simons, F.J., 2012. Mapping Greenland’s mass loss in space and time. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA109 (49), 19934–19937. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1206785109.
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This collection includes odds and sods of material I refer to or that I've picked up along the way and want to have at my fingertips. For example, there are some handy articles about temperature data adjustments, homogenisation and time of observation bias. And there are articles on the greenhouse effect and some on energy balance.
I haven't sorted these all that well.
Demystifying Climate Models - ebook by Andrew Gettelman and Richard B. Rood - free download.
The three phases of ENSO Australian Bureau of Meteorology
The Greenhouse Effect and Climate Change - Bureau of Meteorology booklet - very good.
The CO2 problem in six easy steps - from realclimate.org
Earth's energy balance - simple explanation of greenhouse gases from NASA
What's really warming the world - Bloomberg infographic
Rethinking wedges ERL 2013
RealClimate.org on if we stabilised carbon or cut emissions to zero
Thin Ice: Geologist Simon Lamb followed scientists at work. Click here to go to the website of Thin Ice and watch the videos.
14k science papers show climate change is real +/- caused by humans
Separating signal from noise in surface temperature - Santer quotes
Published Santer paper on separating signal from noise 2011
Pdf presentation on separating signal from noise Santer
Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, Mki. Sato, and K. Lo, 2010: Global surface temperature change. Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4004, doi:10.1029/2010RG000345. A description of the surface temperature record with detailed discussion of the types of adjustments to the data.
Victor Venema on time of observation bias
Paleoclimatology: The Ice Core Record - NASA
SciAm: Using Nitrogen 15 isotopes to date CO2 in ice cores (March 13)
British Antarctic Survey: Ice Core Briefing
Oxygen isotopes and their use in paleoclimatology a very readable overview for the layperson (from NASA)
Arctic sea ice recent history - overview - blog
Tropical cyclone FAQ - from the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia
Forests are dying - 2010 article about pine beetle and other dying forests around the world - Diana Six - by Jim Robbins
Solar radiation spectrum from Wikipedia
Tamino and all that data
Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum - when the global temperature rose a whole 6 degrees Celsius in the short time of 20,000 years
All humans (and all Australia) emit a lot more CO2 than all the world's volcanoes Full paper here
Jeff Master's Top Ten Global Weather Events 2011
8 Insanely Gigantic Solar Plants in Construction - via SolarFeeds - 30 April 2011
Here is a paper showing why heat stress can kill
Heat waves: John Nairn and Robert Fawcett (2013), Defining heatwaves: heatwave defined as a heat impact event servicing all community and business sectors in Australia, The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Technical Report No. 060
The Water Cycle - NASA
http://www.youtube.com/user/firstorbit Film commemorating the first orbit by Yuri Gagarin, with music by Philip Sheppard
Interview with Noam Chomsky on climate, health and other matters affecting the USA and the world
Human migration and evolution paper by Doran Behar in 2008
Wikipedia article on human evolution
Does Monckton ever tell the truth? Debunking of Monckton's misinformation by Abraham
USA political contributions etc
Are you more informed than a Fox News viewer?
Atmoz 400 ppm wager - 2010 based on data now shifted to here
Joseph Priestly biography by TE Thorpe FRS, 1906
NASA Global Climate Change - vital signs of the planet
The Thomson Reservoir Triggered Earthquakes - Allen et al (2000)
PM Julia Gillard on misogyny (nothing to do with climate) October 2012
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